WeatherWatchTV
NZ (THU): Latest on Cyclone Vaianu, Sunday landfall in North Island
- Title
- NZ (THU): Latest on Cyclone Vaianu, Sunday landfall in North Island
- Runtime
- 10:17
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- Severe weather is expected to develop as early as Saturday in the upper North Island ahead of Cyclone Vaianu, which is expected to make landfall somewhere around Auckland to Coromandel Peninsula on Sunday daytime. The cyclone is then likely to travel through the heart of the North Island come out on the eastern coastline (maybe around Hawke's Bay) during Sunday PM - as the storm accelerates southwards.
By Monday the storm will already be south-east of Canterbury and well offshore, as it merges with a colder low pressure zone moving into the western North Island.
We break down the stages of the tropical cyclone moving in, covering wind, rain and dangerous seas. We'll get more detailed on wind potential on either Friday or Saturday as this needs more fine tuning - but much of the North Island is exposed to wind and rain for a time, but it's worth noting our mountain ranges interupt both airflows and rainfall totals, so precise tracking of the centre of the stor...
- Title
- OZ: Cold snap in South-East + Severe Cat 5 Maila
- Runtime
- 9:01
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- A burst of colder, more wintry, air will move into the south-east of Australia later this week, bringing frosts (or near frosts) to higher elevation places like Canberra and a drop in daytime highs for main cities like Hobart, Melbourne and Adelaide (and everyone in between). Sydney has a warm to hot Friday - followed by a cooler Saturday.
The southerly flow is thanks to a large high pressure zone tracking through the south over the coming week - bringing dry skies to many places following the showery southerly coming in this week.
Meanwhile, up in the tropics, Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila is now Category 5 (highest on the scale) as it remains basically stalled over the Solomon Sea. In the days ahead the tropical cyclone will start to drift west to south-west, clipping eastern PNG before heading towards northern Queensland. But the modelling isn't clear about what happens with this tropical cyclone in Australia - so we will still need a few more days to lock ...
- Title
- (NZ) Tropical Cyclone Vaianu's track directly into NZ this weekend
- Runtime
- 9:06
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- *WEDS UPDATE* Localised heavy rain is still affecting some parts of NZ today, seperate to the tropical cyclone which is tracking directly towards New Zealand this coming weekend. Today's downpours are now moving into Bay of Plenty and East Cape - but there are downpours/showers around other parts of NZ too. Track on rain radar now for more the latest.
Thursday and Friday see rainfall easing and drier, calmer, weather moving in thanks to high pressure, which lingers into Saturday for a number of regions too - except the upper North Island where easterly quarter winds will ramp up ahead of Cyclone Vaianu.
By Sunday and Monday the cyclone will likely track down the North Island, accelerating rapidly as it moves southwards to lie east of Dunedin by Monday, conditions easing going into Tuesday.
We have the latest tracking, rainfall and wind forecasts for the cyclone - with our next update coming on Thursday morning before noon. This weekend we will als...
- Title
- OZ: Cyclone Maila (FNQ), cold blast in south-east Australia
- Runtime
- 7:39
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- The weather energy this week is mostly in FNQ and along the southern coastline of Australia as the next tropical cyclone heads towards Queensland and Autumn continues to wake up in the south of the nation.
Cyclone Maila is curently stalled over the Solomon Sea and will do so for a few days, before finally getting some traction and moving westwards. It's expected to cross FNQ north of Cooktown this weekend with a remarkably similar track to Narelle a couple weeks back (although only in the Qld area).
Meanwhile thunderstorms, rain/showers move along the southern coastline of Australia this week with a surge of polar air going into the weekend bringing snow on the mountains, higher elevation frosts and a reduction in temperatures over a large part of southern and south-eastern Australia.
But many other places in between have a very quiet week of weather with lighter winds and dry skies.
- Title
- NZ: Bit of an unsettled week, but a tropical cyclone this weekend
- Runtime
- 6:53
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- Wind and rain affects a number of regions as we kick off this week as strong high pressure departs to our east and some weak low pressure forms to our north and west. Much further north of the NZ area there is Severe Tropical Cyclone Vaianu (not yet affecting our weather).
By Friday high pressure covers NZ for a time bringing light winds and dry skies - but going into the weekend the affects of Cyclone Vaianu will be felt in the north with cloud thickening and easterlies picking up.
Severe weather from VAIANU is expected this coming Sunday and next Monday and may affect much of the North Island and some of the South Island. We still need a few more days to lock in severe weather risks but they are already starting to become clear.
Check out our daily special updates on Tropical Cyclone Vaianu for more details (first video today, Tuesday April 7).
- Title
- Severe Tropical Cyclone VAIANU: Fiji then NZ
- Runtime
- 8:21
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- Fiji is being affected today by offshore TC Vaianu and NZ has the chance of a direct hit this weekend.
The "severe" Category 3 tropical cyclone (out of a maximum scale of 5) is currently situated west of Fiji, bringing heavy rain, thunderstorms and potentially damaging northerlies today to the island nation, mostly around northern and western parts of Viti Levu and the western most islands. The storm should remain centred offshore.
Vaianu will track offshore for a number of days, before curving into northern New Zealand this Sunday where a direct hit is certainly possible (although we'll still need a few more days to lock it in and be more specific).
We have the latest maps, tracking, wind and rainfall over the coming 8 days - and we'll have daily updates until Vaianu is no longer a storm in the Fiji and New Zealand areas.
- Title
- Oz: Easter Weekend weather + monitoring tropical lows
- Runtime
- 7:11
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- Most regions around Australia have a dry, or mostly dry, forecast for the next several days but there are a few areas of interest.
1) Thunderstorms/showers in WA and FNQ
2) Coastal showers (or at least more showers nearer to the coast) in the south
3) Three tropical lows to monitor (one developing around the Top End, the other two around the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu).
We track the weather ups and downs to Thursday of next week.
Programming Notes:
Due to stat holidays in New Zealand we have no video updates until Tuesday of next week (April 7). However, if a tropical cyclone does form over the Solomon Sea/Coral Sea area, and also poses some threat to Australia, we may have an earlier update. Otherwise, catch you again next Tuesday. Have a great long weekend!
- Title
- NZ Easter Weather Update + monitoring the tropics for storm potential
- Runtime
- 8:39
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- High pressure smothers New Zealand as we head into the long weekend bringing mostly dry weather and light winds, with above normal temperatures by day and night in some regions. But on Saturday a cold front that just swept over Tasmania moves into the South Island, with a drop of 10 degrees in some southern locations compared to today. Wet weather moves up the West Coast on Saturday and Sunday and by Sunday there may be wet weather risks over the top half of the South Island and showers for the North Island (and Monday too) - but large dry areas.
Next week will be warmer again as northerlies kick in and some subtropical rain or downpours are possible - but there still remain question marks about the forecast for mid to late next week due to low pressure that may form in the Tasman Sea, along with a tropical low near Fiji that may drift southwards... and this is all happening as the next high pressure zone wants to return to NZ.
We have no updates this long w...
- Title
- ClimateWatch: APRIL's outlook as La Niña ends, shift to NEUTRAL
- Runtime
- 10:45
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- La Niña is officially over and now we're in a "neutral" period of weather for the month of April, which usually indicates a fairly orderly set-up with storms south of New Zealand and Australia, high pressure still crossing both nations and the tropics still quite busy.
April can still see a lot of tropical life - but often it's harder for these lows to move further southwards as high pressure zones start to move a little further northwards. But there's still some breaks in the high pressure belt which may trigger some rainmakers for both NZ and parts of Australia. But the first half of the month doesn't look overly stormy, although tropical lows/cyclones can break this forecast and there are a couple of tropical lows worth monitoring for the first half of the month.
In the long range maps out to the middle of the month it suggests stubborn dry areas may remain in both nations, despite some heavy rain areas.
Neutral weather patterns tend to be a...
- Title
- Oz 8 Day Weather: Southern fronts & tropical cyclone risk in the north-east
- Runtime
- 7:43
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- A cold front is moving though SA and parts of Vic and Tas today, with a few colder/cooler changes in the mix over the coming week, but generally some large dry skies right across Australia.
We cover the long weekend weather, but also a couple of lows north-east of Australia in the tropics, with one over the Solomon Sea this weekend potentially becoming the next tropical cyclone with some risks for Queensland later next week. It's still not locked in and the modelling, while very consistent on the formation of these tropical lows, is less consistent on the future tracking.
Don't forget out ClimateWatch (April Monthly Outlook) is also out today covering Australasia.
- Title
- NZ & South Pacific: Big Picture forecast for Easter + cyclone potential in tropics
- Runtime
- 8:12
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- Today's video is a "Big Picture" one covering New Zealand and the south-west Pacific through to Wednesday of next week, as high pressure moves into the NZ area for the Easter Weekend. On Easter Sunday we do expect some wet weather, mostly in the South Island, and a similar forecast on Monday with some northern showers too.
There is the potential next week for some heavy rain in the upper North Island, although it's not totally clear yet due a weak but large low that may develop over the Tasman Sea after Easter (or a trough, which is almost a low but not quite).
In the tropics there are two areas of low pressure to monitor. The one closest to Fiji has backed off in the forecasts from becoming a tropical cyclone (but definitely still worth monitoring) while the other low near the Solomon Islands may become a tropical cyclone by Easter Sunday. The Solomon Islands looks most exposed and longer range modelling suggest Queensland may also be exposed, but NZers shoul...
- Title
- Oz: Drier weather, a few downpours + tropical cyclone potential
- Runtime
- 9:03
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- There are some showers in the forecast over the coming week, especially in southern parts of WA and in the south-east going into next week. But we provide the 8 day rainfall to make sense of it all, showing 5 to 40mm totalls generally likely in areas most exposed to wet weather.
There are no major temperature swings this week, although some temperature changes in the south with some cooler and warmer days mixed in.
We're also monitoring tropical cyclone potential north-east of Queensland going into next week - it's unclear where it's going to track with New Caledonia, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji and New Zealand all exposed to it, and possibly Queensland - but we'll need more days to confirm.
- Title
- NZ: Easter weekend forecast + tropical cyclone monitoring for next week
- Runtime
- 10:01
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- High pressure is building for NZ this week but Easter Weekend may see some wet weather potential, especially in the second half of the four day weekend.
Apart from some showers this week most regions lean drier, with temperatures slowly lifting a cooler reset today.
By next week there is a big question mark about our weather - we have the chance of a locally formed low developing and bringing some wind/rain going into next week, but we're also monitoring the tropics with low pressure zones from the Solomon Islands to Fiji looking to form a tropical cyclone, or maybe two. While some updates have shown NZ having a direct hit, other updates have not - or have changed the timing. For now we're more focused on WHERE specifically this cyclone may form and the immediate track in its first few days, and that doesn't include New Zealand at this point. We may not know how NZ might be affected until the end of this week, or potentially even the start of next week (depend...
![Oz: [Sat] ExTropical Cyclone Narelle heads south, gone by tonight](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/ZNm_2WFsTgA/1.jpg)
- Title
- Oz: [Sat] ExTropical Cyclone Narelle heads south, gone by tonight
- Runtime
- 8:04
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- FINAL UPDATE --- Narelle is now an ex-tropical cyclone as it continues to move quickly south-east over southern Western Australia.
The area with damaging winds is shrinking - but gusty and potentially damaging winds (up to about 100km/h) do push down to the southern coastline by later today/tonight, then ease overnight in most places. Not everyone will be affected by those winds.
Rain is heaviest south of the low, with heavy rain into the South West too.
For the most part Perth is outside severe weather.
We show you the final tracking, wind maps and expected rainfall this weekend in southern WA.
Also, we look to Easter Weekend and track the next *potential* tropical cyclone out towards Vanuatu. Too early to know how significant this storm might be, or if Australia will even be affected. We'll keep you posted next week.
This is our FINAL UPDATE on NARELLE - thank you for your comments and support. Our next/...
- Title
- Oz 8-Day: A fairly settled week coming up
- Runtime
- 6:23
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- Following a windy south to south-east blast in the south-east of the nation, and Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle out west, the weather looks to settled down right across Australia going through the weekend and into next week.
Rainfall is limited outside of the two lows (west and east) affecting Australia today (Friday) for the following several days with only showers popping up here and there and winds ease for many where it has been (or still is) windy.
Our forecast covers this weekend and the outlook for next week to Good Friday. We'll have our Easter Weekend forecast out on Tuesday of next week.
Programming Notes:
- We have a special Cyclone Narelle video out today (Friday) and another one (our final update) early on Saturday morning.
- We have no video this coming Monday for Australia - back again on Tuesday
- Our next ClimateWatch (monthly outlook) will be issued later on Wednesday April 1st.
- Title
- NZ 11-day forecast: Covering Easter weekend weather
- Runtime
- 6:57
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- We have the latest on the large low that has brought severe weather to NZ as it unravels today and tonight, but still has some pockets of heavy rain and strong winds.
The weekend has a few showers around but larger dry spells returning - but later Sunday and going into Monday another large low (much weaker) also moves in and falls apart here, bringing another period of showers and some patches of rain.
But next week looks to be mostly about high pressure and a few isolated showers/downpours.
Easter Weekend may be similar - and while too far out to "lock in" just yet, we show you what the long range models say for our next long weekend.
Programming Notes:
- We have no video this coming Monday, back again on Tuesday
- Our next ClimateWatch (monthly outlook) will be issued later on Wednesday April 1st.
![Oz [Fri] Cyclone Narelle - Tracking for all of WA](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/3aUUCj6BH9I/2.jpg)
- Title
- Oz [Fri] Cyclone Narelle - Tracking for all of WA
- Runtime
- 10:23
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- We have the latest wind gust maps, tracking and rainfall as Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle moves into WA bringing severe weather to a number of main centres across Friday and into Saturday AM.
We break down the speed of the storm and where it is likely to move over Friday and Saturday, and highlight where the worst of the wind and rain will be.
Narelle will remain a "severe" tropical cyclone across Friday, but once landfall occurs (when the centre of the eye moves over land) we expect the storm to start to weaken as it accelerates south-eastwards.
We have a final update on Narelle which will be issued on Saturday morning.
- Title
- Oz: Brief southerly blast for the SE, then a quiet week next week nationwide
- Runtime
- 8:25
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- A southerly is kicking up a gear today and into Friday for Australia's south-east corner, with a burst of potentially damaging winds and some heavy rain for eastern Victoria and the very south-east of NSW.
Once this event eases on Saturday a mostly dry and much calmer forecast comes in, not just for NSW and Vic, but also the A.C.T, Tas, Qld and the NT. The Tasman Sea islands also have a more settled forecast coming up.
While WA has Cyclone Narelle in the days ahead (see our special Thursday update on the storm), a more settled forecast comes in next week there too.
- Title
- Oz: (Thur) Severe TC Narelle, latest maps & tracking
- Runtime
- 9:12
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is heading to Exmouth tonight and may make a direct hit (or close to it) as a Category 4 storm. Damaging winds and torrential rain are forecast in the region, with the tropical cyclone sliding over the top of most coastal towns/cities north of Geraldton.
Today's update focuses a lot on the western Pilbara, Gascoyne - but then on to the Mid West and the Wheatbelt, along with Perth, Peel and Great Southern regions.
We have the latest tracking, rainfall estimates and where the worst winds will be.
It is a very serious situation for Exmouth tonight/going into Friday - then tht risk shifts southwards towards Carnarvon.
Keep up to date with the Bureau of Meteorolgy - they are tasked with providing Western Australia's official weather warnings, as things may still change in the next 24 hours.
Our next Cyclone Narelle update will be on Friday morning.
- Title
- NZ: Update on severe weather around NZ as storm moves in + outlook for next week
- Runtime
- 9:09
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- Heavy rain and damaging wind gusts are forecast today, tonight and into Friday across parts of New Zealand as a storm over the Tasman Sea continues to spin. The low itself will fall apart late on Friday night near Fiordland, bringing one last surge of gusty wind and West Coast rain before clearing the country by Saturday.
We break down the wind and rain and highlight which areas are most exposed, which places are not.
We then have your New Zealand forecast leading up to the long Easter Weekend next week.
- Title
- Oz: Brief cold, windy, southerly for Vic, Tas, NSW, A.C.T
- Runtime
- 6:52
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- A windy and colder southerly is developing in the days ahead with colder air coming directly into/over Tas and Vic, and also affecting SA, the A.C.T and NSW.
Strongest winds will be on Friday in eastern Vic and south-eastern NSW (Merimbula, Mallacoota etc) with damaging winds possible in exposed coastal areas, but maybe into the mountains too. These gusty southerlies move up the coastline past Sydney, but ease inland by late Friday/early Saturday across much of Vic, NSW and Tas.
Qld and the NT have very little weather changing, with mostly dry skies and a drop in humidity for those in a large part of coastal Qld.
- Title
- Oz: (Weds) Cyclone Narelle reforms, Cat 4 forecast
- Runtime
- 9:53
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- Narelle is back to a tropical cyclone today and will power up to a Severe Category 3 storm, likely within the next 24 hours or so, with Category 4 (out of 5) strength expected by Friday.
Most towns and cities on the west coast of Australia are exposed to Narelle, including Perth and even coastal parts of southern WA.
We break down the latest wind, rain and tracking - with more fine tuning to be done tomorrow as computer models continue to allign.
Our next Cyclone Narelle update will be on Thursday morning.
- Title
- NZ: Subtropical storm moving in, gales and some heavy rain, especially Thu/Fri
- Runtime
- 8:48
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- Heavy rain and gale winds will slowly move down the country over the next 24 to 36 hours a subtropical storm powers up in the Tasman Sea.
Heaviest rain looks to be in the upper North Island, the north-west South Island and the West Coast over the next few days, with lowest totals in the east south of about Gisborne.
The strong winds, mostly north-easterly to begin with, have already started to build in the upper North Island and peak in strength in most places during Thursday. Then those gusty conditions move down the South Island, especially for eastern areas like Banks Peninsula and Otago Peninsula.
While the subtropical storm is getting stronger today and into Thursday, it will weaken on Friday slowly.
We track the wind, the rain and the air pressure systems, plus another low coming in from Australia on Sunday and Monday (which falls apart as it moves in here).
FRIDAY'S MISSING MAP:
The Friday rainfall map was i...
- Title
- Oz: Colder southerly, then an east coast storm
- Runtime
- 8:57
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- A colder southerly is coming for Australia's south-east in the days ahead, bringing a 10 degree drop in some locations. This southerly will then spin up an east coast low which will become stormy in coastal areas (eastern Vic, and south-east NSW). Heavy rain and damaging wind gusts are possible there.
We touch on a tropical storm passing by Norfolk Island at the moment.
Elsewhere the weather around Australia is remarkably dry and settled (outside of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle in WA).
We have your Australia-wide forecast out to Monday of next week, with main focus on the south-east corner of the nation.
- Title
- Oz: (Tues) Cyclone Narelle heading towards Perth
- Runtime
- 8:47
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- Narelle is expected to track to the southern coastline of WA in the week ahead, potentially crossing directly over Perth itself this coming weekend. Before then, it will power back up into a major tropical storm. While at the time of recording today's video Narelle was still technically an ex-tropical cyclone (or a tropical depression) it will restrengthen in the coming 24 hours, and by Friday it should be a Severe Category 4 tropical storm near Exmouth.
Tracking is still fairly similar to previous days, but there is still disagreement about precise placement and timing over the coming days, and that means we still can't lock in what will happen from Port Hedland southwards, but we show you the latest modelling and what that mean.
As Narelle tracks down closer to Perth it should start to weaken - but damaging winds and heavy rain are possible. But the precise tracking beyond Exmouth on Friday is still not locked in.
Our next update on Narelle will...
- Title
- NZ: Tropical storm to bring severe weather to NZ, gales & heavy rain
- Runtime
- 9:16
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- A tropical cyclone is today leaving the tropics and will grow into a larger storm system for a time in the Tasman Sea, before falling apart on Saturday as it moves into the West Coast.
Severe weather risks are most likely in the north of both main islands, but damaging wind gusts may spread nationwide for a time in places most exposed to north-easterly winds. We bring down the latest wind and rain maps - and we do expect to fine tune this further in the coming days.
The tropical cyclone is not a named one by the Fiji Met Service but did reach tropical cyclone status yesteday according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) which globally tracks tropical cyclones.
MetService has already started issuing weather warnings and watches ahead of this storm.
Not everyone in NZ will have heavy rain and strong winds - we break down which areas also miss out on much of the wet weather.
- Title
- Oz: Southerly may spark east coast low this week
- Runtime
- 9:02
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- A cooler southerly flow will spread into the south-east quarter of Australia this week, potentially spinning up a low off the coast of NSW which may deliver some big rainfall totals in south-east NSW and the border of Vic.
On top of that, a stormy low (with some tropical cyclone potential over the next 36 hours) will track past Norfolk Island.
Showers fan out into some parts of SA, Vic and NSW, and maybe the A.C.T, but many other areas have large dry stretches.
Then, of course, there is Narelle - which is going to hug WA's coastline this coming week and weekend - we have another video already out about that with full details.
+ a 7 day rainfall map to make sense of it all.
- Title
- NZ: Tropical low to bring wind & rain this week
- Runtime
- 8:33
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- A low exiting the tropics near New Caledonia this week will grow larger in the Tasman Sea and finally bring in much needed rain to dry parts of New Zealand - but not everyone will get the rain they need.
While the low is going to be stormy at sea, it will fall apart as it moves in to the South Island around Friday and Saturday. Heavy rain potential is most likely in the top of both main islands, with driest weather in the south of both main islands.
The low may also interact with the powerful high pressure belt we kick this week off with, creating strong to gale nor'easter this week as the low moves closer, especially at the top of the country.
We bring you the latest tracking and rainfall numbers for the week and weekend ahead - and how Monday next week may kick off.
![Oz [MON Update] - Narelle heading to WA next, for several days ahead](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/AzU9P4EWzQk/3.jpg)
- Title
- Oz [MON Update] - Narelle heading to WA next, for several days ahead
- Runtime
- 9:32
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- Narelle has weakened after crossing the NT over Sunday and Monday and at the time of recording this was an ex-tropical cyclone. However as it moves out over the Indian Ocean on Tuesday it will power up again, with potentially a Severe Category 4 Tropical Cyclone mid to late week off the coast of Port Hedland.
However there is some uncertainty about just how close to the coastline Narelle will track - even a slight jog further westwards could see severe weather risks reduce (or diminish entirely) in some locations - but a slight eastward jog could see all main centres on the entire western coastline exposed to some degree. We show you why there is such a fine line and where Narelle may track going right through to the start of April.
Our next special Narelle update will be issued later on Tuesday morning.
![Oz: [Sunday update] Cyclone Narelle (NT, then WA)](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/Ms8mthvnu6I/1.jpg)
- Title
- Oz: [Sunday update] Cyclone Narelle (NT, then WA)
- Runtime
- 9:59
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- Tropical Cyclone Narelle is now over the NT and heading west towards WA, where it may hug WA's entire coastline in the coming week or so. As to how close it will be to the coastline is still not entirely clear, but we show you the current tracking.
The video today focuses on the latest for the NT and where the wind and rain is most likely, and how long it lasts for. Then we show you the tracking in the week ahead as Narelle runs southwards down the WA coastline.
While Narelle is expected to weaken over Sunday and Monday, it will power back up again this coming week over the Indian Ocean, possibly back to a Category 4 or 5 cyclone, offshore. But the precise tracking and how it will impact WA is not 100% known yet. There are a few variables yet to be locked in to help us be more precise. If Narelle tracks further westwards it will reduce/remove severe weather for parts of WA, but a closer path may see more towns and cities affected by rain and/or wind.
<...
- Title
- Oz: Big Picture 8 Day weather forecast
- Runtime
- 9:02
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- Outside of Tropical Cyclone Narelle there isn't too much drama in most other parts of Australia, although showers and thunderstorms pop up here and there.
Perhaps the biggest change coming in the next week is a southerly in the south-east of the country, bringing wintry temperatures to places like Hobart later next week (Max temps of around 13 to 15 degrees). This colder/cooler change will spread into Vic, the A.C.T and NSW and perhaps further than that for a time.
Another feature of Australia's weather is for the Tasman Sea, with a tropical storm likely track between Lord Howe Island and Norfolk Island mid-week next week.
We have all the details in what is a fairly quiet week of weather for many (outside of the tropical cyclone(s) of course!).
- Title
- NZ: High pressure grows, but a stormy end to next week possible
- Runtime
- 8:43
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- A settled weekend is on the way and apart from a few isolated showers in both main islands many regions are dry or mainly dry.
The anticyclone crossing the country over the coming days will grow even larger next week south-east of NZ, guiding a new tropical low (that might become a tropical cyclone for a time near New Caledonia) into the central Tasman Sea, where a southerly out of Australia will help make it a larger storm system.
How it precisely affects New Zealand is not locked in yet - but severe gales and heavy West Coast are possible at the end of next week, but the very powerful anticyclone south-east of NZ may play a big role in the future tracking of this low in the NZ area - and which areas get severe weather.
We'll know more in our Monday update if NZ will have severe weather later next week, or not. Have a great weekend!
![Oz: [Fri update] Narelle crossing FNQ, but long journey ahead](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/TcTv6oswt5c/1.jpg)
- Title
- Oz: [Fri update] Narelle crossing FNQ, but long journey ahead
- Runtime
- 8:41
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle may have a remarkable journey ahead of it, as it tries to circumnavigate Australia.
In today's video we cover Severe TC Narelle as it crosses over FNQ, north of Cooktown. While in a remote part of Qld there are still a few towns in the direct path of the damaging storm. Overnight Narelle went from Category 5 (highest level) to Category 4 - but as Phil says, those on the ground in the path of the storm will not notice this difference.
The tropical cyclone should be exiting FNQ by midnight tonight, then moves out over the Gulf of Carpentaria where it is likely to gain more power, after losing it some of it today as it crosses over land.
The storm will come into the NT this weekend, then out over the Kimberley of WA early next week.
Beyond that the modelling isn't locked in - but latest updates over the past couple of days have suggested an incredible path that *might* see the low tracking down the entire...
- Title
- Oz: Big picture forecast to Wednesday of next week
- Runtime
- 7:20
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- There is a lot of dry weather around Australia this week outside of Tropical Cyclone Narelle (we have a special video update about TC Narelle today), but showers do affect NSW and the A.C.T in particular and a few other states and territories.
But high pressure is the main driver of weather in the southern half of the nation, and not as much monsoon rains around the tropics, although Qld has more downpours in FNQ following Narelle.
Another tropical storm may form next week around the Coral Sea and poses some risk to Norfolk Island (and maybe Lord Howe) and even potentially a third system forming around the very northern tip of the Cape Yorke Peninsula by Wednesday of next week (not locked in).
We show you the weather pattern around Australia as tropical storms affect the tropics and drier high pressure dominates the south.
![Oz: [Thurs Update] Cyclone Narelle now Category 5](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/E2gR0s5m8Is/3.jpg)
- Title
- Oz: [Thurs Update] Cyclone Narelle now Category 5
- Runtime
- 6:31
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- Tropical Cylone Narelle is heading towards FNQ and should make landfall on Friday morning north of Cooktown and south of Lockhart River.
Shortly after recording this video today the Bureau of Meteorology updated their tracking maps.
EDIT: Please note, Cyclone Narelle is now a Category 5 tropical cyclonel. This is the highest storm category and indicates this is an extremely serious tropical cyclone. (please note the maps in the video don't indicate it as Cat 5, but this upgrade in storm status does not affect the weather maps displayed - only BoM's tracking map).
We track the wind and rain for FNQ, then look ahead as Narelle is forecast to track across NT & Katherine, then into WA and the Kimberley.
Our next update will be on Friday morning. Please keep up to date with the Bureau of Meteorology for all official local weather warnings and advice.
- Title
- NZ: A tropical low next week *might* affect New Zealand
- Runtime
- 9:08
- Date posted
- 5 months ago
- Description
- It's not locked in yet, but a tropical storm may end up drifting southwards towards NZ about one week from now, following a subtropical low that is tonight brushing the north-east corner of the North Island. March is the peak of the tropical cyclone season so seeing tropical lows/storms showing up now is quite normal - but at the same time we are also seeing our most powerful high pressure zones so far this year in southern parts of the country, and that's going to play a role in if next week's tropical low reaches us as a storm - or falls apart before it gets here. We show you the latest maps.
Generally speaking rainfall is below normal in almost every part of New Zealand over the next 7 days, so that's why there is interest in this next tropical low as it may bring rain relief into some dry regions. We probably won't know until the weekend or even Monday of next week how this may pan out, especially due to that strong anticyclone in southern NZ next week.
- Title
- Oz: Tropical Cyclone NARELLE - Qld, NT, WA
- Runtime
- 8:14
- Date posted
- 6 months ago
- Description
- Tropical Cyclone NARELLE has formed and is heading into northern parts of FNQ, the Katherine region of NT and then the Kimberley in WA - and may then track down the western coastline of WA next week (although what happens in WA is not yet locked in - things may still change).
We break down wave heights, tracking and rainfall in detail for Qld and the NT, but beyond that point it's less clear - but to help you understand what forecasters are seeing we share the 15 day air pressure animation and the 10 day rainfall forecast, focused on where Narelle may move.
Progamming Note:
- Phil is offscreen today due to other work comittments, he'll be back tomorrow/Thursday as per usual and we'll also have our normal Australia-wide weather forecast.
- Apologies for any visual or audio differences in today's video. (imagery on a slight lean, for example!)
- Title
- NZ 9 Day: Two subtropical lows, but a lot of dry weather
- Runtime
- 6:51
- Date posted
- 6 months ago
- Description
- In our extended outlook today we track two subtropical storms, one that will likely miss most of NZ while the other may have a more direct impact. The second subtropical low is over a week away, so cannot be locked in yet due to some very powerful high pressure in the NZ area leading up to then (high pressure alters the tracking of lows).
In fact despite the first low bringing some wet weather over the next two days in the north-east corner of the North Island, along with some patchy rain/showers move up the western South Island from a weak cold front, most of the country still leans drier over the coming several days.
So all eyes will be on that next subtropical low to bring some much wanted rain into dry regions. We may not be able to lock this in this week - but in tomorrow/Thursday's update we'll take another look. Might as well go longer range when the weather here is fairly settled going into the weekend and the start of next week.
Progammin...
- Title
- Oz: Tropical Cyclone potential FNQ & NT, as downpours head to NSW
- Runtime
- 9:41
- Date posted
- 6 months ago
- Description
- A tropical depression is powering up over the Solomon Sea/Coral Sea area and will drift westwards towards the upper FNQ (north of Cairns) around Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Precise power and tracking is still not locked in, but it certainly suggests the likely tropical cyclone will come in between Cooktown and Weipa. It's possible we may not have a video update tomorrow/Wednesday but if not we'll upate again early on Thursday morning with the latest. In the meantime keep up to date with the Bureau of Meteorology incase tracking shifts more southwards into more populated places: https://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/7dayforecast/
As with any tropical depression, things can change quickly - but the guidance has been showing a cyclone formation occuring this week for over 10 days now over the northern Coral Sea.
Heavy rain may also affect Cairns further southwards - but further south of that the wet weather for Qld really breaks up with large dry skies. NSW, howeve...
- Title
- NZ: Subtropical low (yes, another one) to brush the NI, high pressure still in charge
- Runtime
- 7:46
- Date posted
- 6 months ago
- Description
- A subtropical low will power up over the next 24 hours and brush past the north-eastern corner of the North Island around Thursday and Friday, bringing some rain and a burst of wind. Then it's gone by the weekend. We show you the latest tracking and which areas are most exposed to any potential severe weather.
But, for the most part, much of NZ remains dry or mainly dry in the coming several days despite a weak cold front also coming up the South Island on Wednesday and Thursday and falling apart.
Many regions have below normal rainfall over the coming week - but the north-east corner of the North Island and the south-west corner of the South Island are most exposed to any rain and potential severe weather.
*Programming Note:
It's possible we won't have a video on Wednesday, or if we do Phil may be offscreen, due to other commitments.
- Title
- Oz: Some rain in south but Tropical low for FNQ & Top End
- Runtime
- 9:06
- Date posted
- 6 months ago
- Description
- A burst of wet weather is sliding over SA and into parts of Vic, Tas and NSW today, and will break apart further tomorrow and Wednesday as high pressure again builds in the south. A weak cold front will brush Tassie over the next 24 hours and that slightly cooler change will end up as far north as SE Qld.
But it's FNQ that is most exposed to a tropical low that *might* reach Tropical Cyclone status this week, but latest modelling suggests this is north of Cairns, and may well even be north of Cooktown in a fairly remote part of FNQ, but is currently forecast to track north (or near) Weipa and then towards the NT's Top End by the weekend. For now this looks more of a rain event, but it's definitely worth tracking in the days ahead in case it does drift more southwards into more populated places. A strong anticyclone over the Tasman Sea is the reason why, at this stage, the tracking of this tropical depression no longer sinks southwards (as some maps indicated was possible...
- Title
- NZ: Skies will get drier before they get any wetter
- Runtime
- 6:40
- Date posted
- 6 months ago
- Description
- High pressure is the main feature of New Zealand's weather this week, the upcoming weekend and likely kicking off next week too. It means that regions that are already dry will get drier as rainfall drops below normal for this time of year in most places.
A weak cold front comes in on Wednesday and Thursday, but brings very little rain to most places - outside of Fiordland and South Westland.
A few showers today also kick off the working week in Auckland, Northland and Southland - most other regions are dry.
A subtropical low this week (east of the North Island) may also drag in some cloud and a few showers to the eastern North Isand.
We show you what is controlling New Zealand's weather this week - and how it fits in to the "orderly" set-up we forecast two weeks ago in our March ClimateWatch (monthly) outlook.
- Title
- OZ: Heavy central rain + Tropical Cyclone potential for Coral Sea next week
- Runtime
- 10:58
- Date posted
- 6 months ago
- Description
- More heavy rain will sink southwards through the NT next week as a tropical cyclone possibly kicks into gear over the Coral Sea.
The thunderstorms and rain over parts of the NT will sink southwards over the coming several days, bringing some heavy rain into northern SA and some parts of WA.
A more refreshing change is moving up NSW and into the south-east of Qld today and this weekend - but next week a low pressure zone is expected to strengthen over the Coral Sea and may grow into a tropical cyclone. It's too far out to lock in, but we show you the latest maps.
High pressure dominates the south - with dry to mostly dry weather over the coming week, other than a brief cold front that brings the chance of showers in the very south-east of the nation.
We also have 8 day rainfall maps, not only for the mainland and Tas, but also for the offshore Tasman Sea and Indian Ocean islands too.
Have a great weekend - catch you aga...
- Title
- NZ 8 Day: High pressure to return, also monitoring tropics next week
- Runtime
- 9:09
- Date posted
- 6 months ago
- Description
- A cooler change is moving into NZ tonight and Saturday then winds ease further on Sunday as high pressure starts to replace the current low pressure zone over the country.
High pressure, light winds (or westerlies) looks likely next week, with perhaps a couple of cold fronts over the South Island next Wednesday and Friday.
Rainfall for most regions over the coming week is below normal. We have an 8 day rainfall map to make sense of it.
We're also monitoring the tropics for a potential tropical cyclone over the Coral Sea mid to late next week - it's too far out to lock in, but we show you the latest modelling for that. It poses no immediate threat to NZ or Queensland at this stage. One to watch.
Finally, for our farmers with livestock, we have the latest facial eczema trend at the very end as we continue to see it spike this month.
- Title
- Oz: NT exposed to more rain, TC possible Coral Sea next week
- Runtime
- 8:37
- Date posted
- 6 months ago
- Description
- More heavy rain is forecast for the NT and will sink southwards into northern SA over the coming several days. Downpours and small pockets of heavy rain are also expected in the tropical north of Qld, and a few showers on the eastern side of the country down to NSW. Vic and the A.C.T looks mainly dry.
Tas has a showery colder and windier change today - but high pressure is returning soon.
Meanwhile WA has inland and southern showers, large dry areas and heat sinking southwards mid-next week.
- Title
- NZ: Unsettled Thu/Fri, high pressure returns this weekend & next week
- Runtime
- 8:35
- Date posted
- 6 months ago
- Description
- Wind and some wet weather is moving into both ends of NZ today and tomorrow bringing broken up rain bands and showers and pockets of windy weather. Humidity and temperatures will also go up over the next 24 hours, especially in the upper North Island as the subtropical low unravels and falls apart.
As we go into the weekend a more refreshing change returns with skies becoming drier (or remaining dry) in many places - we show you where the showers are. High pressure builds this weekend and moves into northern NZ next week, with westerlies further south.
Next week we're also monitoring a potential tropical cyclone around the Coral Sea - it's still a long way out but worth keeping an eye on future developments.
- Title
- Oz: Windier southerly in the south as downpours remain across the tropics
- Runtime
- 8:49
- Date posted
- 6 months ago
- Description
- A southerly quarter wind is moving in along the entire southern coastline and pushing inland with lower temperatures as a cold front swipes the south-east today, mostly bringing wet weather to Tas, but also parts of SA and Vic.
WA has thunderstorms and downpours off and on in the south over the coming few days, mostly around Goldfields and to the east towards SA.
Next week heavy rain may sink southwards over the southern NT and northern SA, as heavy rain and thunderstorms also continue in the coming days just south of Katherine.
We're also monitoring a potential tropical cyclone next week around New Caledonia - but it's too far out to know if it will definitely happen, or if it might affect Australia.
- Title
- NZ: Subtropical low, windy for some, then high pressure slowly returns
- Runtime
- 7:19
- Date posted
- 6 months ago
- Description
- It's cloudy and windy for parts of New Zealand today with the North Island especially gloomy under cloud associated with a subtropical low. High pressure is east of NZ so between the strong high and the fairly strong low we have a 'squash zone' of windy easterlies in the top of the North Island for the next day or two.
As far as rain is concerned, it's a bit borderline for some in the upper North Island with the low falling apart as it moves closer on Thursday. We show you the rain and wind gust maps for this.
In the South Island a cold front is approaching, and by Friday PM and Saturday a south to south-west flow will spread up NZ, easing the humidity for northerners, but bringing a windy day to some exposed parts of the country. Those winds ease further going into Sunday and Monday.
Next week high pressure returns to NZ, but a tropical cyclone may be forming around New Caledonia.
- Title
- Oz: WA, NT and Qld most exposed to rain, Tas in for a cold change
- Runtime
- 9:28
- Date posted
- 6 months ago
- Description
- Thunderstorms and heavy rain is expected in southern parts of WA over the days ahead, along with more widespread heavy rain/showers around the NT and Qld (mostly tropical areas of Qld).
A colder/refreshing southerly will spread eastwards along the southern coastline over the next few days, bringing a cold change into Tassie for a time too, then a more refreshing change as far northwards as the SE of Qld.
There are large dry areas dominating a number of more populated places over the coming week.
Finally, we're monitoring a tropical depression over the Coral Sea next week that might have tropical cyclone potential - although it's too early to know this for sure, or if Qld will be affected.
- Title
- NZ: Temperatures to lift, before dropping again this weekend
- Runtime
- 7:36
- Date posted
- 6 months ago
- Description
- Subtropical and north-west winds will help boost temperatures around NZ both by day and night followed a colder couple of mornings around the nation as we head towards Thursday and Friday.
By Friday PM a cold front moves into the South Island and clears east of the country on Saturday, allowing for a windier south-west change over New Zealand. It's not a major cold front, but it will rest temperatures after the warmer Thursday and warm start to Friday.
Those winds ease further for many places on Sunday and high pressure again dominates NZ's weather in most regions as we kick off Monday next week.
